UFC Rematch Betting Strategy & Statistics
Rematches arent uncommon in the realm of mixed martial arts. If a fighter sticks round the business for a length of time, you may rest assured that theyll be scheduled to fight with an opponent they have faced at one point or another. In addition to that, dominant winners will constantly have a rematch or two solely due to running out of opponents that are new to face in their weight category.
Whenever these rematches take place, how should they be wager by you? Should you always bet about the fighter that won the first fight? Is your underdog the perfect play? That is a question so I brought some information on the subject up, I wished to answer.
Since UFC 1, when boxers have confronted each other the winner of the preceding fight has gone. This means the winner is victorious in 62% of rematch??fights.
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So as to use these amounts to our advantage as bettors, we will need to dive right into them a bit deeper. Our database for battle odds goes back into 2012, so well use from then until present day (August 9,??2019) as our sample size to get favorites and underdogs.
Fighters who won the very first fight walked??into the rematch as a gambling favorite??36??days from a total of 60??rematches because 2012, winning 28??of those fights (77.7??percent??win rate).
While that is an success rate, the gain from these fights is not quite as big as you might??imagine given the fact that a portion of the fighters??wouldve been favorites with a substantial margin. $100 bettors wouldve walked away with a gain of $377.64??when they kindly wager on the fighter who won the former bout when they were recorded as the favorite??in the next struggle all 36??times this happened.
The most significant (and rewarding ) statistic I found was that the fighter who won the first bout??won 14??out of 24??rematches when they were recorded as an underdog, providing $100 bettors a gain of $1,013.46.
All in all, since 2012,??should you bet $100 to the boxer who won the first fight when they competed in??a rematch, then you would have gained a gain of $1,391.10.
History tends to repeat itself, and UFC rematches are no exception to this rule.
Even though winning his fight as Daniel Cormier went into his rematch with Anthony Johnson as a +115 underdog bettors are able to look at UFC 210 as an prime illustration of that. He won in lopsided fashion through submission. Rose Namajunas was likewise an money heading right into her UFC 223 rematch with Joanna Jedrzejczyk and went on to triumph in a unanimous decision.
The opposite can obviously be stated about gambling on fighters in a rematch bout who lost the competition while the statistics show that gambling on the fighter who won the fight when they rematch a competition is profitable.
Favorites in rematches when they dropped the first battle are 10-14, losing $100 bettors a total of $926.21.
Underdogs in rematches if they lost the fight are 8-28 bettors that a total of 979.
To put these statistics that is gambling into terms as simple as possible, you can feel safe gambling on a fighter when they choose somebody whom theyve already conquered. Whether theyre recorded as favorites or maybe not, you will gain long term to a profit executing this technique.
Not all rematches are made equal. There are some fights that never ought to be fought with a second time, or perhaps a period.
To take these conflicts for the sake of curiosity, from this equation I wanted to examine the amounts when shooting name conflicts that were ONLY into consideration. For the fight to fall under this category, both the rematch and the very first fight had??to have been to get the buckle.
The album for the previous winner heading right into a title fight rematch is 25-10.
Since 2012, previous winners in fights for the name are 17-3, netting $100 bettors a gain of $725.20.
These numbers do nothing but further the point that betting over the winner is a play that is intelligent, so feel free to execute this strategy if you wish to win a little cash moving ahead.